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Program P(Go)

P(Go) is the Markets Forecast analyst’s estimate of the probability that the Item forecasted will actually be funded as described in the record.

This factor only applies to the forecast period and only to the expected revenues from those forecasts. All historic systems are automatically valued at 1.

Therefore, P(Go) is used as a factor to pro-rate forecast values for production, R&D, or services. It enables the analysts to forecast Items at full quantities and full Unit Prices, as they expect them to happen in the future, without overestimating the total market size. There are two P(Go) assessments covering the 10-year forecast period:

  • Item P(Go) Near-Term (1-5 years)
  • Item P(Go) Far-Term (6-10 years)

P(Go) Standards

P(Go) is an approximation of the chance that a program or requirement has of successfully achieving its programmatic objective. Impediments could be: a low funding priority; a performance, schedule, political or technical issue(s); and the successes of competitive alternatives.

P(Go)

NOTE: P(Go) only applies to the revenue calculations and not to the program forecast as shown in the record.

  • For example:
  • A production forecast of 16 units at $100K per unit and a P(Go) of 50%
  • There would be no factor applied to the 16 units. That represents the requirement. We do not reduce the requirement based on probabilities.
  • Production values (16 x $100K = $1.6M), however, would appear as $800K in the market forecast (16 x $100K x .5).

P(Go) Comments/Assumptions

This field is provided for Markets Forecast analysts to document any assumptions or comments regarding the Item’s P(Go). It is a required entry for all P(Go)’s below 90%.